The newest edition of The Meredith Poll found strong voter enthusiasm and signals an increased advantage for Democrats.
Voter enthusiasm remains high heading into the last few days before Election Day. Over 70 percent of North Carolinians state they are likely to vote. Democrats hold about a five-point advantage in terms of enthusiasm over Republican and unaffiliated voters.
“Democrats seem well positioned to pick up seats in the congressional and legislative districts in North Carolina because of the higher enthusiasm among its voters and the generic ballot advantage their candidates hold,” said David McLennan, Director of the Meredith Poll.
The generic ballot advantage for Democratic candidates for Congress has grown significantly since the August Meredith Poll. Democratic candidates now hold a 10.8-point lead over their Republican counterparts (48.8%-38%). In August, the lead was five points.
The generic ballot advantage for Democratic candidates for legislative seats has also grown and now stands at 10.6 points (48.3%-37.5%). This is compared to a nine-point lead for Democrats in August.
“The last two months appear to have set Republicans back in terms of their chances for holding the 10-3 advantage in the Congressional delegation or their super majority hold on both chambers of the General Assembly,” said McLennan. “Some reasons for the Democratic surge may be a reaction to the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings that further energized Democrats to come out and a reaction of voters to the bombs sent to Democratic political figures such as former Presidents Obama and Clinton.”
The Meredith Poll also surveyed voters about their approval of political figures including President Donald Trump and Governor Roy Cooper. President Trump's approval ratings are underwater (38.7% approve; 51.2% disapprove). This is a slight decline from August when he had a 44.2% approval rate. Governor Cooper continues to be the political figure with the highest approval ratings in the state with 55.3 percent of citizens approving the job that he is doing and only 34.4% disapproving his performance.
Support for Nonpartisan Redistricting
Poll respondents favor a change in the way redistricting is done with 58 percent of citizens favoring an independent, nonpartisan commission to draw political districts, as opposed to just 20 percent that favor the current system of having the party that controls the state legislature drawing the congressional and legislative districts.
About The Meredith Poll
The Meredith College Poll conducted a mixed mode sample of North Carolinians (220 live caller respondents and 505 email respondents) to registered North Carolina voters from October 21-25, 2018. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4%. Meredith College students administer the survey as part of the College’s commitment to civic engagement.